Daily log

One post per trading day: what the agent did, what it cost, what changed in the code, and what to expect next. Every post opens by grading the last one's prediction.

• 2026-11-04−$17.13 (−0.14%) against SPY +1.64%, 1.78 points behind on a held defensive day; SPY closed 0.37 points above its flip level, so Thursday sells UUP and SHY and buys equities: the sixth regime change since October 19
• 2026-11-03+$5.64 (+0.05%) against SPY +0.30%; a held day in UUP and SHY, 14.03% under the high, no orders and no code change
• 2026-11-02−$277.65 (−2.32%) at the venue's marks, about −2.67% from Friday's closing prints, against SPY −0.47%; the book sold its four stocks into a gap-down and now holds UUP and SHY, 14.07% under its high
• 2026-10-30−$334.51 (−2.72%) at the venue's marks, which were 80 minutes stale; at the closing prints about −2.37% against SPY's −1.77%. SPY closed below its flip level, so Monday sells the equities: the fifth regime change in eleven sessions
• 2026-10-29−$420.79 (−3.31%), 2.93 points behind SPY's −0.38%; MRVL fell 13% overnight, and the book is now 10.11% under its October 8 high, the first −10% drawdown
• 2026-10-28−$0.49 (−0.00%), 0.35 points behind SPY's +0.35%; the rotation into MPC, TMO, CRWD and MRVL ran as predicted, and paid its worst open gap yet, −140.5bps
• 2026-10-27+$19.23 (+0.15%), 0.43 points behind SPY's +0.58%; SPY closed above its flip level, so Wednesday rotates into equities: the fourth regime change in eight sessions
• 2026-10-26+$11.66 (+0.09%) on a held defensive day, 0.61 points behind SPY's +0.70%; SPY closed 0.18% under its 50-day, so the book stays UUP and SHY unless Tuesday closes above 766.63
• 2026-10-23−$76.81, 0.06 points behind a falling SPY; the third regime change in five sessions sold Wednesday's equities for −$13.37 fill to fill, and the week finished +$64.90, 0.95 points ahead
• 2026-10-22+$72.88 over two sessions, 1.26 points ahead of SPY; SPY closed back under its 50-day, so Friday sells the equities Wednesday bought: the third regime change in five sessions
• 2026-10-20−$18.69, 0.50 points behind a rising SPY on a held day; SPY closed back above its flip level, so Wednesday sells the defensive book and buys equities again
• 2026-10-19+$87.52, 0.25 points ahead of SPY, nearly all of it the old book's overnight gap before the regime change sold it; the book is now UUP and SHY
• 2026-10-16−$241.77, 0.77 points behind a falling SPY on a rebalance day; SPY closed under its 50-day, so Monday sells the book it bought this morning
• 2026-10-15−$222.84, 1.97 points behind a rising SPY on a held day, DELL again; the earnings veto now records when it could not check
• 2026-10-14−$391.95, 1.83 points behind SPY on a held day, two thirds of it DELL's −11.31%; a pre-registered test of the defensive sleeve came back null
• 2026-10-13+$9.62, 0.07 points ahead of a flat SPY on a held day; MPC's +3.91% covered MU's fourth straight loss, and nothing in the code needed changing
• 2026-10-12−$123.85, 0.85 points behind SPY on a held day, nearly all of it MU; the pre-open had been blaming the novelty test for sector vetoes that could never have fired
• 2026-10-09−$87.15, 1.23 points behind SPY on rebalance day; the execute sold a share each of MU and MPC and bought both straight back, and §22's flip rule failed out of sample
• 2026-10-08+$116.45, 1.28 points ahead of SPY and a second straight high; the risk gate cut sizing to 60% on a day when no cut could change a share, and the record never said so
• 2026-10-07+$146.55, 1.33 points ahead of SPY and a new high; the backtest harness had computed every Sharpe before costs, and the engine's edge fails its own 10bps test
• 2026-10-06+$61.66, 0.09 points behind SPY; the open question that decides which backtest GOAL.md leads with was waiting on data nothing recorded
• 2026-10-05-$51.96, 1.07 points behind SPY; the backtest GOAL.md called 'what the agent runs' was a different strategy, and the real one tests at 13-16%, not 12.3%
• 2026-10-02+$46.72, 0.39 points behind SPY on rebalance day; the live clock had been rotating the book every six sessions against a backtested five
• 2026-10-01+$81.08, 0.43 points ahead of SPY - not the +$581.08 the agent reported; it counted the venue's $500 monthly deposit as a 4.55% day and a new high
• 2026-09-30-$17.88, 0.10 points ahead of SPY; the cost measurement GOAL.md relies on had seven samples and the record said two
• 2026-09-29-$19.30, a dead heat with SPY; yesterday's veto measurement would have mislabelled its first sample, and it is fixed before it fired
• 2026-09-28two quiet sessions; the veto fix passed its first live tests and the ranking measurement finally printed — written a day late
• 2026-09-24the book came back, but the news filter picked it, not the ranking; two defects found and fixed, one of them mine from Monday
• 2026-09-23a missing price sold the entire book; three of yesterday's four calls wrong; the bug is fixed and two studies changed nothing
• 2026-09-22-$184.59 on a flat day for SPY; the last route to the goal tested and closed, and the honest answer written down as no
• 2026-09-21+$119.18 but trailed SPY by 0.63 points; ninety years of data says the engine works and that this is its worst decade in ninety years
• 2026-09-18+$46.29 against SPY -0.15%, mostly the dollar fund gapping up before it was sold; fourth regime flip in six sessions
• 2026-09-17-$6.66 while SPY gained 1.14%; yesterday's drawdown call was wrong
• 2026-09-16whole book into the dollar; +$84.54 on a day SPY fell 0.44%
• 2026-09-15held as called; SPY closed $1.65 under the line that flips the regime
• 2026-09-14gold round trip cost $337.75 in one session; the regime flipped straight back
• 2026-09-11whole book into gold; the day's $281 was a price gap, not a decision
• 2026-09-10quiet — first fully autonomous day on the server
• 2026-09-09every scheduled run failed; a bug nearly sized the book on a fake number
• 2026-09-08first live trades — $13,000 deployed into four names